Thomas Mulcair is clearly a talented politician but like so many other NDP leadership hopefuls, he’s like a deer caught in the headlights at the thought of being the next Prime Minister. As he said in the last debate, he wants to go for gold. Going for gold works in a hundred metre race, it’s not so great for a nation.
The problem with going for exclusive power in a first past the post system where your potential supporters have always been split is dreams of exclusive power are possible, but not probable. We’ve now have had 25 years of the NDP and Liberals splitting the opposition vote, the proportions change from one side to the other with each election, but the split remains sufficient to keep the opposition in opposition or like the present government with a tiny pluarlity.
The tiny plurality is the other problem. Even if you ‘go for and get’ Harper or Rae gold – 36 per cent for Bob Rae in Ontario when he was NDP or 39 per cent as Stephen Harper today -you still don’t have a majority mandate. A Mulcair 39 per cent may suit you more than a Harper 39 per cent, but it doesn’t make it any more legitimate. Canada will still be in the situation where two out of three Canadians voted against the government and that plurality isn’t a mandate – as Bob Rae quickly found out in Ontario. Nonetheless, Mulcair, Topp et al. want their own version of Harper gold. Why? Why not just focus on doing as Cullen is proposing – displace Harper, then get an electoral system in place where everyone’s vote counts and true majorities can be formed? This will give Canada more hope than another 39 per cent plurality for whomever.
There’s a reason one of Harper’s very first administrative moves was to close down the Law Reform Commission. It had just released a large report, two years in the making which recommended federal electoral reform. Rightly so, Mr. Harper fears electoral reform more than he does any opposing politician. The problem for Canada is Harper’s ruthless manipulating of the first past the post system is literally tearing the country apart. This latest round of cuts will include pensions, the CBC, fresh and saltwater fishing protections which follow on gun control, mandatory prison sentencing and the magic of moving a Quebec that had never been so federalist to one that is deeply alienated.
Quebec extended a hand to Canada in the last election and the Robo calls effectively stopped Canada from shaking that hand. My bet is Quebec’s orange wave was a once in a lifetime event. It won’t happen again, no matter who gets consecrated to lead the NDP. Meanwhile the NDP and the Liberals are busy missing so many boats it’s like watching a fleet leave the harbour. Instead of simply insisting that re-elections in the fraudulent ridings be held, – every time they rise in the house, they’re crowing over passing good vibration bills and walking right into the same trap Mulroney set for Justice Minister Allan Rock years ago. The trap of ‘let’s go to court and we’ll see whose guilty’. Well Parliament did, but it took decades and was more of an embarrassment than of any significance when a link was finally ‘proved’.
This is why Harper insists all fraud reports must go to Elections Canada. Letters, complaints, information once parked with EC investigation will be safe from inspection and action for years. When the true story finally emerges, it finally did with the Mulroney prosecution, it will be just another historical footnote. The damage will have been long done, but the damage here is a just a little graver than Mr. Mulroney’s hand in a lobbyist’s pocket. It’s nation ending.
Unless true elections can be held in the ridings subjected to election fraud, my prediction is:
In 2012 the Parti Quebecois will displace the Charest Liberals and the non partisan panel presently studying the sovereignty issue in Quebec will report to Quebec that a new relationship is necessary with Canada. The key recommendation will be for Quebec re-appropriate all of its taxing powers from the federal level and withdraw from joint cost agencies, bureaucracies and Parliament itself. The reason will be the ‘value gap’ that has emerged between Harper’s Canada and Quebec’s Quebec.
In 2013, the Parti Quebecois will then use the non partisan panel’s report as talking points to craft a carefully worded referendum that will satisfy the Clarity Bill.
In 2014, with Harper still at the helm, the PQ will take Quebec out of Canada.
NDP stalwarts will then spend a lot of time wondering why when they had a choice, they elected a man who did the same thing to his party as Michael Ignatieff did to the Liberals when he refused to join the coalition, but it will be too late.
Canada gets Harper.